Frightened Cat in a Bag

Aphrodite and Hephaestus

Only one phrase can accurately describe the delusional leader of the world, the aspiring caliph and the rightful heir to the Ottoman throne Mr. Erdogan: a frightened cat in a bag.

Cornered all around, above and below, inside and out, he tries to get over the traumatizing effects of the recent failed coup by sacking close to 100,000 state officials while more than 10,000 people including academics, soldiers, policemen, businessmen have been jailed for maintaining ties to a terrorist group/cult (FETO) which Erdogan believes is the plotter of the unsuccessful coup attempt.

Despite the fact that he is probably right, it is extremely difficult for an outsider to come to terms with his allegations:

• He has been ruling Turkey for the last 14 years in a row.
• It was he who appointed these FETO people in the first place.
• He and his government almost shamelessly promoted them abroad, provided credibility to their charities, schools, etc through all these years.
• They were getting along just fine until he and four other ministers were charged for theft, embezzlement, fraud and money laundering in 2013.
• He wants us to believe thousands of professors, doctors, teachers and business people tried to overthrow his government by force.
• He brought the same accusation against the peaceful Gezi protesters.
• His prime minister (Binali Yildirim) claims 60-80% of Turkish armed forces are members of this group. Why didn't they join the coup then?

Yet, he blindly scratches anyone who comes close to question his authority and begs for sympathy. All this proves he cannot empathize at all.

Pick a Syndrome

Diana and Actaeon by Titian

Latest unsuccessful coup attempt in Turkey has proven that Erdogan was/is considered a ticking time bomb by many if nothing else. His delusional leadership not only contributed to a destabilized Syria and Iraq but the resulting stream of immigrants threatened to shake the European Union at its core plus helped augment Islamophobia to an unprecedented level in the far corners of the world (USA). When you add the final icing that is his homophobia on the cake, it is not so far fetched to assume many would want him gone.

Apparently two possible endings have been planned (or wished) for him:

The Ceausescu or the Milosevic syndrome.

The failed coup is an indication that an immediate end a la Ceausescu will be tried first. Therefore, it is not so unreasonable to expect another try, though not via a military coup, that will lead to his demise. If that fails, cases of money laundering (Iranian) and being accessory to mass murder in Syria are two candidates to pave the way to Milosevic syndrome.

Unsuccessful Coup Attempt in Turkey

This time, I am really really outpaced. The thriller we call history rolls with an unprecedented speed. Last week, some elements of Turkish armed forces headed by members of a cult (Fetullahcilar) tried to overthrow the government. By all measures, the coup attempt seems premature and without a solid plan as if it was rushed and executed ahead of schedule. Although some analysts would undoubtedly say the rush was due to a pending legal operation to the cult members of Fetullah or FETO, Fetullah Terror Organization according to Turkish government, we should not forget they were not alone in this endeavor and these additional groups had no reason to rush.

Typically, a successful coup requires

1. local support or a considerable number of people without an objection to it
2. rank and file support in especially the army
3. international support

It was obvious that putchists did not have the first two so I have to assume they had some sort of international support, implied or otherwise. Rather than implicating any group or state, let us write down what we know:

• The political leadership in Turkey is delusional.
• They can shift their domestic and international policy abruptly and not necessarily rationally.
• They might intend to carry out hostile plans towards an ethnic minority and they are extremely sectarian.
• NATO members are beginning to consider Turkey as a burden (links are given to show the sentiment only, nothing else is implied).

Based on above, it is not difficult to see that a sudden policy shift favoring Russia might have created panic in some circles. This, combined with coming crackdown on the FETO group probably led to the unfortunate chain of events. 

What happens now?

It is not hard to guess that the delusional sectarian leadership of Turkey will use this as an excuse to crush all political dissent while clearing those who were involved with the coup.

Why did We Eat It?

Turkey and Israel have decided to normalize relations, ending a 6-year dispute with 10 Turkish activists dead. In summary:

• Turkey gains a privileged role in Gaza's economic development and a lessening of its isolation in a deeply troubled region.
• Israel sees an end to its practical difficulties with Turkey and gets assurances about future Hamas activity on Turkish soil.
• There could also be important economic benefits to both countries in terms of the energy sector and tourism.

 This all means they are exactly where they were 6 years ago. Since it is next to impossible to understand how Turkish leaders make policy (I do have an explanation for this particular one but need more data to draft a beautiful conspiracy theory of my own), it is best to describe the final agreement with a short story:

One day, a rich farmer was going to downtown with his servant. He sit on his comfortable carriage rode by a beautiful horse and the servant on foot, they hit the road early to run a few errands. They saw a pile of fresh shit on the road and the wicked master decided to make fun of his poor servant:

"If you eat that shit, the carriage and the horse will be yours and I'm going to walk instead of you."

The poor servant looked at the carriage and the horse and then the pile of shit. He always hated this man. So, he decided to accept the challenge and despite the smell and disgusting taste, he managed to eat it. And on they went, roles reversed.

Soon, the poor servant was angry with himself. He could not look after a horse nor maintain a carriage. The farmer, on the other hand, could buy a new horse and a carriage anytime he wanted. "I ate that shit for nothing," he thought.
The farmer was also upset. "I lost a horse and carriage for a piece of shit," he contemplated.

On the way back, noticing another pile of recently produced shit gave them both the opportunity they sought. "Master," said the servant,

"Eat that shit and you can have your carriage and horse back."

The farmer jumped to the occasion, swallowed it quickly and got on his carriage again.

Approaching their village, the poor servant asked his master,

"On the way to town, you owned the carriage and the horse and I was on foot. Now, here we are, back where we started, you still own them and I'm still on foot. So, tell me master of mine, why did we eat that shit?"

Why You Can't Understand Turkish leaders

Many political analysts, journalists, academics and other interested parties generally in international politics, in particular Turkish politics are having difficulty to make sense of Turkish leaders (Erdogan and company) and their policies. If we exclude their domestic plunders for the moment and focus only on Turkey's relations with her neighbors, it is actually very easy to explain. It gives me great pain not having mentioned it here as part of my predictions, so I can only console myself that I wrote about it on another blog, sadly not in English.

Erdogan and Davutoğlu (he served as foreign and prime minister) share a mental disorder very common in Islamists: They are delusional! They live in a fantasy world where Ottoman Empire will be reborn and connect to its eagerly waiting old members that were once torn apart by heathens (read imperial powers). With the help of the religion of love and peace (sic), this will pave the way to an ultimate Islamic orgy of sorts.

You may think that I am exaggerating. Fine! You can read adventures of HH (his highness) in his conquest of Africa from this perspective or if you would consider it TL/DR, too long, don't read, here is Yigit Bulut, advisor to the president, speaking:

People in the Balkans, Africa, Central Asia and the Middle East are asking how they, too, can be governed from Istanbul. People in Greece, Romania and Bulgaria are saying, "Never mind the European Union. What new scenario can develop with Turkey?"

Mr Bulut may not be delusional, though. People like Erdogan is surrounded by two groups of people: True believers and con-men. He probably belongs to the latter, enjoying the benefits freshly squeezed from an easy mark. Yes, delusional people make easy marks but with a side effect: They are also dangerous.

I'm back!

I am finally back from a long hiatus equipped with an exoskeleton, a computer-enhanced brain and a shiny new augmented personality with a couple of not so uncommon disorders. Yet, I find it even more depressing to discover that I had been right on so many issues. Let us take stock to remember and reminisce for the duration of this post:

In Fat Lady: Muslim Brotherhood I had boldly written the following,

If Mubarak is overthrown, I predict an authoritarian government in medium term; i.e. an interim government enhancing liberties until elections and Brotherhood rule after the second if not the first election. In any case, I will be glad to see Mubarak go. One less one-man, game has to be played regardless of the cards held.

In Oil-rich vs Poor Countries in Middle East I had posited that,

As far as pure liberties are concerned, like freedom of expression, women's rights and suffrage, criminal and justice system, the oil-rich countries are as bad as the poor ones. The press is under control, communication is troublesome and often censored (plus monitored), individuals are severely restricted from what they eat and drink to what they wear. In most, one-man rule has been and still is the common denominator.

Taking into account their common cultural heritage, the acid test for me is if there will be any demand for enhancing liberties in the richer states. Any sign of disturbance there, though not necessarily similar in size and progress, will imply that a consensus for a more liberal and free society is growing.

No shake in rich countries, hence oppression goes on.

In Tunisia: Intifada or Revolution, I had humbly suggested,

Not satisfying the essential first two properties, The Tunisian Jasmine movement runs the risk of being labeled as disturbance by the very same people. Failing to accomplish anything, it might be seen as a nuisance, something that only makes things worse.

A lot happened since that post and after 2014 election, the Islamists caved in and a real hope for peace emerged. So, I consider this prediction a fail but I should remind you: never trust Islamists as the problem of absolutes persists:

The geography in question is a land of absolutes. There is an absolutely appropriate dress code, an absolutely perfect religion, an absolutely correct way of relationship; an abundance of absolute truths. So many absolutes rarely produce democracy. 

Let us hope that I will be absolutely wronged!

Concepts and Expectations

There is a lot of confusion as disturbances and unrest spread across the Middle East. Often, concepts and ideas are bended and twisted to cater to the events. One such concept is freedom, living your life the way you like it, expressing your thoughts without fear of discrimination and unfair and/or occasional violent reaction. The recent events in Tunisia and Egypt have reminded me this once again.

I am an atheist. Carelessly disclosing this fact would cost me a head in Afghanistan, in Saudi Arabia I would probably rot in a prison, it would get me some number of kicks and stones in Iran, I would be cast out in Egypt and I'd manage in Turkey but there will be a price to pay. When people say and hope for freedom if and when those dictators flee, I beg to differ. I do not expect freedom. True, life will be much better, less restrictions, a popular government but that is all. Is it bad? Of course not! Should we call it a democracy? No!

Do not get me wrong. I do not have the slightest intention to despise those revolutions. It is a big step towards the right direction. And unlike many, I do not have a baseless fear that religious zealots will take over and nuke the world. Yes, Islam will be a dominant factor shaping the society and politics, and we shall have to wait and see if those countries will evolve to free and democratic nations in the not so near future.

Oil-rich vs. Poor Countries in Middle East

Corruption and inequality are shaking the relatively poor (read not oil-rich) countries of the region. Unlike many, I do not see the uprisings in Tunisia, Egypt and who knows next as revolts against oppression directly. Rather, they are the result of oppression being used as a tool for exploitation by the few who got richer while the masses stuck in poverty and unemployment. The driving force for the revolutions (I do not favor that term either) is hatred towards those people occupying governmental positions and businesses aligned with them.

As far as pure liberties are concerned, like freedom of expression, women's rights and suffrage, criminal and justice system, the oil-rich countries are as bad as the poor ones. The press is under control, communication is troublesome and often censored (plus monitored), individuals are severely restricted from what they eat and drink to what they wear. In most, one-man rule has been and still is the common denominator.

Taking into account their common cultural heritage, the acid test for me is if there will be any demand for enhancing liberties in the richer states. Any sign of disturbance there, though not necesarily similar in size and progress, will imply that a consensus for a more liberal and free society is growing.

Fat Lady: Muslim Brotherhood

Having read some number analyses if the Mubarak regime will hold or what will happen next so and so forth, I can not help but notice most have ignored a key actor in the Egyptian political arena, the Muslim Brotherhood. Opera does not end until fat lady sings and the Brotherhood is Egypt's fat lady despite its activities have been banned for a long time.

Although most on-line figures celebrate joyfully in the name of freedom, I consider them as naively romantic. One should not forget that Brotherhood's ideology is at least partly appealing to a considerable portion of Egyptians as previous Pew research found out, and that ideology is as remote as the South Pole to democracy, human rights and freedom in general.

If Mubarak is overthrown, I predict an authoritarian government in medium term; i.e. an interim government enhancing liberties until elections and Brotherhood rule after the second if not the first election. In any case, I will be glad to see Mubarak go. One less one-man, game has to be played regardless of the cards held.

Word of Mouth or Twitter

Word of mouth or Twitter? Which do you think is worse during a commotion and unrest? Apparently Egyptian government is for the latter, as in order to block access to many social networks they have shut down entire Internet connectivity. I humbly disagree with them and their Internet blackout strategy.

Once being an involuntary element in a few riots, protests etc when I wore a younger man's shoes, I can definitely certify that word of mouth is a terrible thing. Several times, I witnessed a phrase reaching to the tail of a convoy (if I may say so) from its head and the change was beyond recognition. A simple sentence like "Police detained X and released an hour later" turned into a "Police has taken in X and been torturing him for hours." It led to unexpected events.

So, I stand firm. Spoken words vaporize, are taken out of context, are modified and reshaped to no end while the written, in whichever form, even a retweet retain its original value. Mubarak is very likely to regret his decision but unfortunately he does not read my blog. Pity!

Year of the Rabbit

We'll see. Read the full story here.

Tunisia: Intifada or Revolution

I disagree naming the events in Tunisia as a revolution, though I am happy with the word Jasmine, it is my favorite flower. History tells us successful revolutions have two important elements:

1. leader(s)
2. program

The French had Robespierre, the Chinese had Mao and the Russian had Lenin as the prominent figures leading the way. More importantly they all had a program, a clear message, an agenda to replace, a power structure to change and an ideology to effect that change. Tunisian uprisings seem to lack these elements.

True, Tunisian people grew tired of oppression, poor economic conditions, high rate of unemployment, etc and put up a courageous fight but where will it take them? Despite the tyrant Ben Ali fled the country, it seems all the underlying causes that created the current conditions remain. Although we see some progress on the liberty side, please remember that poverty and inequality was the dominant factor that triggered the uprisings and riots. The existing power elites (both politically and economically) are still in place and they try to control the situation by letting people blow their steam --they allow more freedom, and by making small sacrifices --Ben Ali gone, a blogger is now a minister.

The third but often overlooked property of revolutions is they have a duration. The spark does not go on forever. If Jasmine fails to change anything substantial, it will lose momentum; this is true for successful ones, too. And this brings us to the fourth property: counter revolution. Every action creates a reaction and here lies the danger.

Not satisfying the essential first two properties, The Tunisian Jasmine movement runs the risk of being labeled as disturbance by the very same people. Failing to accomplish anything, it might be seen as a nuisance, something that only makes things worse. Suppose you are a shop owner and everyday there is a demonstration, a protest or a march in your street.. And no sales plus occasional damage where you have to foot the bill. You are not better off and you will grow tired of those mobsters looting around. You get the picture. This will provide extra leverage for the ruling classes to suppress them.

Hence, I favor neither intifada --it can not be sustained, nor revolution --it lacks direction. And I sincerely hope I will be proven wrong.

A Passage to Tunisia

2011 has come with its disturbances all around the world. Revolutions and uprisings have cropped up in all shapes, colors and flowers, so have the analyses.

I skimmed through quite a number of those about the so-called Twitter triggered Jasmine revolution of Tunisia. I do not want to discredit them all because most were written by real experts when it comes to social networks but from where I stand, they fail to fulfill two important requirements:

1. Location: For any meaningful political analysis, one has to live in the subject country for a year or two. No, weekend visits, holidays, short term stays do not count. A 5-star hotel can create miracles in the middle of nowhere; with its clockwork perfection, it is no different than living in your insert-your-favorite-city-here. On the other hand, a simple task of shopping so that you can cook your dinner home gives you a completely different perspective. Nothing is more insightful as spending some time in the country of your analysis.
2. Language: In order to know a (any) culture closer, you have to know the language, period. A lot of subtle clues are lost during the translation, or worse, you get the picture totally wrong. Let me give you an example from my native language. Take, for instance, a simple verb like to love. When conjugated in present continuous tense, it is what it seems, you love someone. Conjugation in (simple) present, however, complicates things; most often than not, it is a warning, sometimes a threat but it rarely means liking (not loving) someone. Without knowing the context the phrase "I love you" used, it is impossible to derive anything meaningful out of it (that is why I call it the political tense, the politicians love it; it is the best aid for plausible future denial).

Satisfying neither condition, let me throw in a regional analysis so that your visit here and reading so far will not be a complete waste of time. The geography in question is a land of absolutes. There is an absolutely appropriate dress code, an absolutely perfect religion, an absolutely correct way of relationship; an abundance of absolute truths. So many absolutes rarely produce democracy.