Pick a Syndrome

Diana and Actaeon by Titian

Latest unsuccessful coup attempt in Turkey has proven that Erdogan was/is considered a ticking time bomb by many if nothing else. His delusional leadership not only contributed to a destabilized Syria and Iraq but the resulting stream of immigrants threatened to shake the European Union at its core plus helped augment Islamophobia to an unprecedented level in the far corners of the world (USA). When you add the final icing that is his homophobia on the cake, it is not so far fetched to assume many would want him gone.

Apparently two possible endings have been planned (or wished) for him:

The Ceausescu or the Milosevic syndrome.

The failed coup is an indication that an immediate end a la Ceausescu will be tried first. Therefore, it is not so unreasonable to expect another try, though not via a military coup, that will lead to his demise. If that fails, cases of money laundering (Iranian) and being accessory to mass murder in Syria are two candidates to pave the way to Milosevic syndrome.

What are They Faking and Why?

Miniature depicting Ottoman military campaign

One can find numerous examples here and elsewhere claiming Turkish president Erdogan and company are deluded and that is why it is not easy to make sense of their policy changes. As a matter of fact, it is not that difficult to grasp; their policy, or cause as they would say, has always been the same. It zigs and zags and zigs again; but the destination is always the land of love and peace where Islamic orgies bloom in its palaces. So, the sudden shift in relations with Israel and Russia looks absurd.

It is important to differentiate between someone who makes peace because he believes in peace, and someone who does it because he somehow needs it. Erdogan and his Islamists fall into the second category. Hence, they are faking peace.

One can always argue that Russian embargo hurts Turkish economy (it really does and costs Islamists precious votes especially in coastal cities, votes that they will presumably need to tailor a constitution that suits their delusions in the not so distant future) but it is really difficult to explain their change of heart with Israel, the terrorist state as they would say, many many times on and off the record. So, for what purpose did they require a peaceful relationship with Israel (and to a lesser extent with Russia)?

Hint: Erdogan said Syrian refugees could become Turkish citizens.
Hint: It is wildly speculative.

I'm back!

I am finally back from a long hiatus equipped with an exoskeleton, a computer-enhanced brain and a shiny new augmented personality with a couple of not so uncommon disorders. Yet, I find it even more depressing to discover that I had been right on so many issues. Let us take stock to remember and reminisce for the duration of this post:

In Fat Lady: Muslim Brotherhood I had boldly written the following,

If Mubarak is overthrown, I predict an authoritarian government in medium term; i.e. an interim government enhancing liberties until elections and Brotherhood rule after the second if not the first election. In any case, I will be glad to see Mubarak go. One less one-man, game has to be played regardless of the cards held.

In Oil-rich vs Poor Countries in Middle East I had posited that,

As far as pure liberties are concerned, like freedom of expression, women's rights and suffrage, criminal and justice system, the oil-rich countries are as bad as the poor ones. The press is under control, communication is troublesome and often censored (plus monitored), individuals are severely restricted from what they eat and drink to what they wear. In most, one-man rule has been and still is the common denominator.

Taking into account their common cultural heritage, the acid test for me is if there will be any demand for enhancing liberties in the richer states. Any sign of disturbance there, though not necessarily similar in size and progress, will imply that a consensus for a more liberal and free society is growing.

No shake in rich countries, hence oppression goes on.

In Tunisia: Intifada or Revolution, I had humbly suggested,

Not satisfying the essential first two properties, The Tunisian Jasmine movement runs the risk of being labeled as disturbance by the very same people. Failing to accomplish anything, it might be seen as a nuisance, something that only makes things worse.

A lot happened since that post and after 2014 election, the Islamists caved in and a real hope for peace emerged. So, I consider this prediction a fail but I should remind you: never trust Islamists as the problem of absolutes persists:

The geography in question is a land of absolutes. There is an absolutely appropriate dress code, an absolutely perfect religion, an absolutely correct way of relationship; an abundance of absolute truths. So many absolutes rarely produce democracy. 

Let us hope that I will be absolutely wronged!

Concepts and Expectations

There is a lot of confusion as disturbances and unrest spread across the Middle East. Often, concepts and ideas are bended and twisted to cater to the events. One such concept is freedom, living your life the way you like it, expressing your thoughts without fear of discrimination and unfair and/or occasional violent reaction. The recent events in Tunisia and Egypt have reminded me this once again.

I am an atheist. Carelessly disclosing this fact would cost me a head in Afghanistan, in Saudi Arabia I would probably rot in a prison, it would get me some number of kicks and stones in Iran, I would be cast out in Egypt and I'd manage in Turkey but there will be a price to pay. When people say and hope for freedom if and when those dictators flee, I beg to differ. I do not expect freedom. True, life will be much better, less restrictions, a popular government but that is all. Is it bad? Of course not! Should we call it a democracy? No!

Do not get me wrong. I do not have the slightest intention to despise those revolutions. It is a big step towards the right direction. And unlike many, I do not have a baseless fear that religious zealots will take over and nuke the world. Yes, Islam will be a dominant factor shaping the society and politics, and we shall have to wait and see if those countries will evolve to free and democratic nations in the not so near future.

Oil-rich vs. Poor Countries in Middle East

Corruption and inequality are shaking the relatively poor (read not oil-rich) countries of the region. Unlike many, I do not see the uprisings in Tunisia, Egypt and who knows next as revolts against oppression directly. Rather, they are the result of oppression being used as a tool for exploitation by the few who got richer while the masses stuck in poverty and unemployment. The driving force for the revolutions (I do not favor that term either) is hatred towards those people occupying governmental positions and businesses aligned with them.

As far as pure liberties are concerned, like freedom of expression, women's rights and suffrage, criminal and justice system, the oil-rich countries are as bad as the poor ones. The press is under control, communication is troublesome and often censored (plus monitored), individuals are severely restricted from what they eat and drink to what they wear. In most, one-man rule has been and still is the common denominator.

Taking into account their common cultural heritage, the acid test for me is if there will be any demand for enhancing liberties in the richer states. Any sign of disturbance there, though not necesarily similar in size and progress, will imply that a consensus for a more liberal and free society is growing.

Fat Lady: Muslim Brotherhood

Having read some number analyses if the Mubarak regime will hold or what will happen next so and so forth, I can not help but notice most have ignored a key actor in the Egyptian political arena, the Muslim Brotherhood. Opera does not end until fat lady sings and the Brotherhood is Egypt's fat lady despite its activities have been banned for a long time.

Although most on-line figures celebrate joyfully in the name of freedom, I consider them as naively romantic. One should not forget that Brotherhood's ideology is at least partly appealing to a considerable portion of Egyptians as previous Pew research found out, and that ideology is as remote as the South Pole to democracy, human rights and freedom in general.

If Mubarak is overthrown, I predict an authoritarian government in medium term; i.e. an interim government enhancing liberties until elections and Brotherhood rule after the second if not the first election. In any case, I will be glad to see Mubarak go. One less one-man, game has to be played regardless of the cards held.

Tunisia: Intifada or Revolution

I disagree naming the events in Tunisia as a revolution, though I am happy with the word Jasmine, it is my favorite flower. History tells us successful revolutions have two important elements:

1. leader(s)
2. program

The French had Robespierre, the Chinese had Mao and the Russian had Lenin as the prominent figures leading the way. More importantly they all had a program, a clear message, an agenda to replace, a power structure to change and an ideology to effect that change. Tunisian uprisings seem to lack these elements.

True, Tunisian people grew tired of oppression, poor economic conditions, high rate of unemployment, etc and put up a courageous fight but where will it take them? Despite the tyrant Ben Ali fled the country, it seems all the underlying causes that created the current conditions remain. Although we see some progress on the liberty side, please remember that poverty and inequality was the dominant factor that triggered the uprisings and riots. The existing power elites (both politically and economically) are still in place and they try to control the situation by letting people blow their steam --they allow more freedom, and by making small sacrifices --Ben Ali gone, a blogger is now a minister.

The third but often overlooked property of revolutions is they have a duration. The spark does not go on forever. If Jasmine fails to change anything substantial, it will lose momentum; this is true for successful ones, too. And this brings us to the fourth property: counter revolution. Every action creates a reaction and here lies the danger.

Not satisfying the essential first two properties, The Tunisian Jasmine movement runs the risk of being labeled as disturbance by the very same people. Failing to accomplish anything, it might be seen as a nuisance, something that only makes things worse. Suppose you are a shop owner and everyday there is a demonstration, a protest or a march in your street.. And no sales plus occasional damage where you have to foot the bill. You are not better off and you will grow tired of those mobsters looting around. You get the picture. This will provide extra leverage for the ruling classes to suppress them.

Hence, I favor neither intifada --it can not be sustained, nor revolution --it lacks direction. And I sincerely hope I will be proven wrong.