Monday, June 20, 2016

I'm back!

I am finally back from a long hiatus equipped with an exoskeleton, a computer-enhanced brain and a shiny new augmented personality with a couple of not so uncommon disorders. Yet, I find it even more depressing to discover that I had been right on so many issues. Let us take stock to remember and reminisce for the duration of this post:

In Fat Lady: Muslim Brotherhood I had boldly written the following,

If Mubarak is overthrown, I predict an authoritarian government in medium term; i.e. an interim government enhancing liberties until elections and Brotherhood rule after the second if not the first election. In any case, I will be glad to see Mubarak go. One less one-man, game has to be played regardless of the cards held.

In Oil-rich vs Poor Countries in Middle East I had posited that,

As far as pure liberties are concerned, like freedom of expression, women's rights and suffrage, criminal and justice system, the oil-rich countries are as bad as the poor ones. The press is under control, communication is troublesome and often censored (plus monitored), individuals are severely restricted from what they eat and drink to what they wear. In most, one-man rule has been and still is the common denominator.

Taking into account their common cultural heritage, the acid test for me is if there will be any demand for enhancing liberties in the richer states. Any sign of disturbance there, though not necessarily similar in size and progress, will imply that a consensus for a more liberal and free society is growing.

No shake in rich countries, hence oppression goes on.

In Tunisia: Intifada or Revolution, I had humbly suggested,

Not satisfying the essential first two properties, The Tunisian Jasmine movement runs the risk of being labeled as disturbance by the very same people. Failing to accomplish anything, it might be seen as a nuisance, something that only makes things worse.

A lot happened since that post and after 2014 election, the Islamists caved in and a real hope for peace emerged. So, I consider this prediction a fail but I should remind you: never trust Islamists as the problem of absolutes persists:

The geography in question is a land of absolutes. There is an absolutely appropriate dress code, an absolutely perfect religion, an absolutely correct way of relationship; an abundance of absolute truths. So many absolutes rarely produce democracy. 

Let us hope that I will be absolutely wronged!

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